President Mugabe and the mystery of the aborted Indian excursion

On Tuesday 8^th March 2016, the State daily, The Herald reported that President Mugabe had left Harare the previous day on a trip to India http://www.herald.co.zw/president-leaves-for-india/ The purpose of his trip, they stated, was to attend the World Culture Festival, a cultural event in the city of New Dehli, where he would be the guest of honour.

Zimbabweans on social media expressed surprise and concern that the President was going for a conference of that calibre, the general view being that it was not a priority and he could have dispatched one of his two deputies or the cultural affairs minister. When he travels, President Mugabe usually commands a large entourage which depletes the already meagre state coffers.

President Mugabe’s supporters defended the trip, arguing that India was an important trading partner and there were good business reasons for him to attend the cultural event. One of the foremost defenders on Twitter, Professor Jonathan Moyo alluded to what he called the “Special Relationship” between Zimbabwe and India, one of the BRICS nations that has been doing phenomenally well in recent years.

But concerns were further raised when it emerged that the President had left behind his cultural affairs minister, Abednico Ncube. How could the President travel to a cultural festival, with his usually large entourage, but without his appointed officer responsible for cultural affairs? If anything, he would have been the rightful person to delegate for such an event, which is no more than a large carnival.

Zimbabweans on social media raised further doubts about the conference when it emerged that the host in India, President Pranab Mukherjee was boycotting the event. How could our President go to an event which even his Indian counterpart, the host, was not attending?

Further, the list of attendees revealed that it was mostly retired Presidents or Prime Ministers and low-level government representatives who were attending the event. Other had sent junior ministers or cultural representatives. It wasn’t a high-profile event at all, and was organised by a local non-governmental organisation, rather than the Indian government itself. President Mugabe would have been rubbing shoulders with retired heads of state rather than with his peers. Back in Africa, Presidents Zuma and Buhari of South Africa and Nigeria respectively were busy with their own meeting and could not be bothered to attend the fringe Indian jamboree.

There was also major controversy around the venue of the event, the hosting of which environmental campaigners were protesting against.  The matter was before an environmental court in India, which later granted permission amid the protests.

As Zimbabweans on social media debated the prudence of President Mugabe travelling all the way to India for a carnival, the President’s office issued a statement on Wednesday evening, advising that President Mugabe had called off the trip. The ZBC misleadingly reported it as a “Summit” which was ridiculed by Zimbabweans on social media who saw it as a cheap attempt to raise the profile of a mere festival.

The reason given by George Charamba, the President’s spokesperson, for cancelling attendance was that there were “substantial inadequacies in protocol and security arrangements around the event”. As if to secure comfort in numbers and to justify the sudden withdrawal, the statement also added that “A number of leaders slotted for participation, including those from the host country, have also withdrawn their participation”. It concluded with a curious line, “The President is expected home in a couple of days”.

The statement became the centre of attention, scrutiny and controversy. Why had President Mugabe suddenly pulled out of the event after he had already flown to India? Did they not know about the “protocol and security arrangements” of the event? Had they not done due diligence before travelling on such a long trip? The President doesn’t just wake up and decide to go on an overseas trip without proper planning. The invitation would have arrived in advance. They would have planned for it, selecting the delegates, preparing his speech and itinerary, including accommodation and travel arrangements. The President’s Office is reputed to be efficient in this department in keeping with the status and demands of the office.

In addition, Zimbabwe has an embassy in India, complete with security details who would have ensured that the President’s security and protocol arrangements were fully in place before he travelled. In addition, when a Government Minister, let alone the President travels, there is usually a strong advance party which travels ahead of them to make sure adequate arrangements are put in place. Even CEOs of companies have similar arrangements. They don’t just hop onto a plane without knowledge and arrangements at the destination.

All this means, the Zimbabwean Government would and/or should have been fully aware of the nature of the event, including those important security and protocol arrangements. They would and/or should have picked up intelligence around the event, including the controversies around it and relayed advice back to Harare, well before the President got onto the plane. So in this case, had someone slept on duty and neglected their duties to the President and the nation, exposing him to embarrassment of having to pull out in this fashion?

But then there was the curious last line of the statement, which indicated that President Mugabe would be “expected home in a couple of days”. Why “a couple of days” when a flight from India to Harare is less than 15 hours and when the country has urgent business to attend to – things are not exactly smooth-sailing in the country right now. People began to speculate over his whereabouts. As President Mugabe’s preferred choice for medical treatment is Singapore, people began to speculate that he may have been passing through that country for a medical check-up before returning home.

Then on Thursday morning, as Zimbabweans continued to debate the matter, Professor Moyo hinted that contrary to what “detractors” were saying, President Mugabe had in fact never been to India. This was supposed to dispel the notion that President Mugabe had abandoned the trip only after he had arrived in India but it only raised further enquiries – so where was he when he aborted the trip?. When I asked if The Herald newspaper had given incorrect information or been misled into reporting that he had gone to India, a State media editor stated by way of defence that they (state media) had never reported that he had arrived [presumably in India]. This also suggested that President Mugabe had never made it to the Indian peninsula. This was curious: if he was not in India, then where was he? If he had not arrived in India, where could he have gone to?

There was further confusion because a major Indian television broadcaster, NDTV reported on their website that although President Mugabe had pulled out of the event, he was nevertheless in India http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/sri-sris-guest-of-honour-mugabe-drops-out-though-he-is-in-delhi-1285683  This only raised further questions among Zimbabweans as to the whereabouts of the President. Where was he and some added, how is he?

Some resourceful Zimbabweans then used flight-tracking technology to find out where the Air Zimbabwe flight might have gone to if it didn’t go to India. There are a number of public flight-tracking websites available on the internet. They display information on all flights, their time of departure, their destination and time of arrival, etc. This is public information – there is nothing secret about it and members of the public use it every day around the world. It was this flight-tracker which showed that Flight UM1 (flight code for Air Zimbabwe) had left Harare on 7^th March 2016 and flown to Singapore. There was no indication that the flight had left Singapore.

This suggested that President Mugabe had in fact travelled to Singapore, and not to India in the first place. Perhaps the intention was to attend to business in Singapore first, and then travel to India for the festival. This would seem to tally with the fact that he had travelled at least 4 days before the start of the Indian festival. So he may have learnt about the troubles around the event while in Singapore and decided to call it off.

Others are sceptical, however, believing that Singapore was always the only destination and the Indian trip was simply an official cover for the actual trip. They argue that this explains the anomaly of leaving the cultural affairs minister at home on a trip that would have been well within his remit.

The correct position is not known, as the government is not revealing any information apart from the brief statement they issued announcing that he was pulling out of the event. Meanwhile, Zimbabweans continue to speculate over the issue, now focusing on the situation of their President, who turned 92 a few weeks ago. Defenders suggested that there was a security issue at the Indian destination which caused the President’s aircraft to divert to a “safe country” mid-way through the flight. However, others have doubted the plausibility of this explanation.

But one thing which the episode has demonstrated is that in an age of information technology, multiple sources of information and vibrant social media, it is getting incredibly difficult for propagandists to cover-up issues and hoodwink people. As people resort to freely available tools to gather and share information, they will demand answers and more transparency in the way the affairs of the State are handled. This might of course attract defensive measures, including restrictions on social media and more generally, the internet.

Meanwhile, Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa is the Acting President in the President’s current absence.

waMagaisa

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