Recent events have shown the military getting increasingly visible in the race to succeed President Robert Mugabe. Although the defence forces commander General Constantino Chiwenga denied links to the Lacoste faction which allegedly backs Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa, it would be foolhardy to take such denials serioulsy. No serving general would openly declare or admit support for a faction or its leader and still expect to keep his job. Naturally, General Chiwenga would be expected to deny any links to Lacoste or any faction.
Nevertheless, in order to understand the actual dynamics beyond those denials, one has to gather the scattered parts of the political jigsaw and piece them together so that the bigger picture becomes more visible and clearer. Having done that, the picture which emerges is that while Mnangagwa’s world appeared to be crumbling only a fortnight ago, after a humiliating public attack by Mandiitawepi Chimene, a party subordinate, a number of factors have converged to suggest that he still retains key backing from important pillars, including the parts of the military.
Enter the General
Apart from the war veterans, the first sign of significant backing for Mnangagwa has come from Chiwenga, who gave a telling interview to The Sunday Mail. General Chiwenga effectively defended Mnangagwa by attacking the G40 faction, which is opposing the latter’s bid for the presidency. Chiwenga’s barely disguised criticism was directed at Jonathan Moyo, believed to be a key architect behind the G40 faction, and Mandiitawepi Chimene, who verbally assaulted Mnangagwa two weeks ago, allegedly on behalf of the G40 faction.
“We were reading mapepa paakatanga kuti ‘when you want to destroy Zanu PF you need to do it from within’,” said Chiwenga in what is a clear reference to Moyo, to whom the theory of “destroying ZANU PF from within” has been widely attributed. In any event, Chris Mutsvangwa, the Chairman of the war veterans association has made similar remarks before, in reference to Moyo’s role. Although he did not give a name, it’s not a coincidence that Chiwenga was alluding to the same accusation.
Chiwenga’s statement also demonstrates what George Charamba, presidential spokesperson, is alleged by Moyo to have told him last year, regarding the military establishment’s views of him on succession: “Minister, the system is asking if Moyo is not supporting VP Mnangagwa to succeed, so who then is he supporting?” “The system” that Charamba was referring to were the military commanders, whom he said did not trust Moyo. Inherent in Charamba’s statement is the view that the military commanders, or at least a significant number of them, are backing Mnangagwa in the succession race. Chiwenga’s thinly-veiled attack on Moyo merely confirms Charamba’s warning to Moyo.
As for Chimene, Chiwenga was even more brutal. “This nonsense of someone who was at a refugee camp or was a cleaner moving around telling people that he or she fought in the struggle is just that — nonsense. Wakarwa hondo kupi? (where did you fight the liberation war?)
“People can smoke marijuana, it is within their rights. Even if it’s to do with traditional spirits, go ahead and smoke — but don’t disturb us because we have lost thousands of innocent sons and daughters,” said Chiwenga. There can be no doubt that Chiwenga was responding to her attack on Mnangagwa. It was Chimene who had claimed during her verbal attack upon Mnangagwa that some people thought she spoke bluntly because she smokes marijuana. Chiwenga was not only casing aspersions on Chimene’s war credentials, but he was also fighting in Mnangagwa’s corner. The previous weekend, Mnangagwa had also taken the unprecedented step of responding to Chimene’s attack. Now Chiwenga was pitching in as an ally, complementing Mnangagwa’s defence by way of attack against his chief tormentors.
It is notable that while Chiwenga declares his loyalty to President Mugabe, he does not condemn the beleaguered leadership of the war veterans in the same terms that he condemns elements of the G40 faction. Like Mnangagwa, while appearing to refuse association with the beleaguered war veterans’ leaders, Chiwenga gives them the benefit of the doubt by questioning the authorship of the controversial communique issued after a meeting of the war veterans three weeks ago. He sticks to the line that the matter is under investigation and describes it not as a document of the war veterans’ leadership but as “attributed” to them. This language is in marked contrast to the unequivocally accusatory tone from the G40 faction and President Mugabe who have already condemned the current war veterans’ leadership. Chiwenga, like Mnangagwa, appear to be holding a belief that the communique was the work of another sinister force – the so-called Fifth Column using social media to malign the war veterans and Mnangagwa. Unlike their boss, Mugabe, they are giving the war veterans’ leadership the benefit of the doubt.
Compare this, however, to Sekeramayi’s statements at the war veterans’ rally held at ZANU PF Headquarters a fortnight ago, where he introduced Chimene as the “acting Chairperson” of the war veterans’ association. Mugabe has also found the war veterans leadership guilty already, stating at the same rally that the acting leadership would go ahead and hold elections to choose a new leadership. There is a clear difference in the way Mugabe and his top military general view the war veterans’ leadership in relation to the communique. It has to be noted also that the war veterans’ association has regularly used military facilities to hold its meetings. On a previous occasion, on 30 January 2016, the war veterans met at the Dzivarasekwa Presidential Guard Barracks, where they also issued a scathing declaration which attacked Moyo and the G40 faction. Moyo responded by calling it a “successionist plot” and raising concerns that such a document had been authored at a military facility. The link between the war veterans and the military’s interest in the succession war was already clear then.
Succession as a war between generations
What we are observing is war veterans and significant elements of the military closing ranks and rallying around Mnangagwa who is seen as leading the faction that best represents their interests and aspirations. The military generals know they will soon leave active duty and must prepare for life after it. Some see themselves taking up a career in politics. However, they have also seen how the G40 approach is built around the erosion of the older war generation in the leadership structure: the so-called liberation generation. The first stage of the decimation of the liberation generation was successfully achieved with the removal of the Mujuru faction between 2014 and 2015.
The second stage involves the on-going resistance against, and leading to the removal of Mnangagwa and his Lacoste group, around which the remaining majority of the liberation generation has rallied. The military generals who are part of this liberation generation realise what is happening and have staked their futures on Mnangagwa and his Lacoste faction. In essence, therefore, the succession battle in ZANU PF is a battle between generations: the liberation generation which wants to keep hold of power and what we may conveniently refer to as the post-liberation generation, which wants to wrest control of the party and country’s leadership.
Ideologically, the liberation generation finds basis for its claims to leadership in the war narrative, which by its nature is very exclusionary in that it monopolizes leadership to those who fought in the war. This partly explains why Chiwenga makes constant references to protecting the liberation legacy and adds disparaging statements toward those who did not go to war. “Many of those who did not make it to Zimbabwe were the real fighters and some of the celebrated cowards who only saw the border when going into Mozambique and coming back at Independence and never during combat, they are now claiming the glory,” he said.
The G40 faction looks like a good fit to Chiwenga’s description of the so-called “celebrated cowards”: Moyo has been widely accused of deserting the war at a military training base in Tanzania to pursue academic studies in the US. Chimene seems to be the one Chiwenga was accusing of having been a “refugee or a cleaner” at refugee camps, while Vice President Mphoko’s war record has also been discredited by luminaries such as current ZAPU leader, Dumiso Dabengwa. Mutsvangwa has also accused Mphoko of having a dubious war record. Saviour Kasukuwere also linked to the G40, has clashed with war veterans after he called them as “taxi drivers and drunkards”. At her rallies, Grace Mugabe, the President’s wife has also lashed out at war veterans, claiming they did not have any greater claims on leadership than other citizens.
While the G40 has important points against the exclusivist liberation war narrative of the liberation generation, the major weakness is that because they deny whom they are, they have never actually explained their ideas to make them persuasive. If they did, perhaps their views might find sympathy with a significant portion of the public which is fed up with the exclusivist liberation war narrative as the only justification to claim leadership. The irony is that the G40 faction is experiencing exactly the same treatment to which the MDC and other opposition parties have been subjected by the liberation generation in the past: that if you lack liberation war credentials, you can’t be trusted to protect the liberation legacy and you have no claim to leadership in Zimbabwe. In fact, listening to Chiwenga talking about protecting the liberation legacy at the press conference on Heroes’ Day, it sounded like a replay of the infamous statement made by the late General Vitalis Zvinavashe immediately before the controversial 2002 presidential elections. That unprecedented statement made on behalf of the generals, was widely seen and condemned as a thinly-veiled threat against Morgan Tsvangirai, Mugabe’s main rival in those elections. Only this time, Cihiwenga was directed his statements mainly at the G40, an internal faction of the ruling party.
Judicial boost
Another boost to Mnangagwa and the Lacoste faction has come from the judiciary, where the High Court last week upheld an application by the beleaguered war veterans’ leadership to bar Chimene and her group from masquerading as the acting leadership of the war veterans’ association. This was not just a setback for Chimene and her group who thought they had been endorsed by Mugabe but also a heavy blow to Mugabe who had already accepted them as the acting leadership. It was also embarrassing for Sekeramayi, who had confidently announced Chimene as the acting Chairperson of the association. The High Court has effectively backed the war veterans’ leadership which has already been suspended or dismissed from ZANU PF. It might be said to be a victory for judicial independence to rule so openly against Mugabe’s wishes, but to the extent that it furthers the Lacoste faction’s interests, the judgment is of remarkable significance in the succession wars.
The mistake that Chimene made was to openly disparage the courts. In February this year, when the High Court issued an interdict against her, Chimene said: “I want to make it clear that I will not be barred from working with war veterans by a High Court order. Is it the High Court that authorised me to fight in the liberation struggle? Do I need the High Court to verify whether I am a war veteran or not? So until a time when the High Court can approve who is or not a war veteran, only then can I abide by that order.” This was an ill-judged statement. Judges don’t like politicians who undermine their authority so openly. Her G40 handlers failed to hold her back. Last week, she repeated similarly contemptuous comments when she stated, “Was the court there when we went to war? I was not invited to the liberation struggle by a court” This kind of behavior by Chimene will only do more damage to the G40 faction’s credibility before the courts.
State media’s helping hand
As noted already in a
