This is the second of two articles discussing the possibilities of how The System that we have described previously might be broken. In the first article, we discussed two possibilities. In the first, we asked whether Zanu PF would carry out reforms in response to the election boycott that is being pursued by the MDC and the conclusion on that was rather bleak.

The second option asked whether Zanu PF might eventually be forced to carry out political reforms in response to the costs arising from the inefficiencies of operating The System. This was based on the notion that model upon which The System is run is unsustainable in the long run and when the costs begin to outweigh the benefits for the members of The System, they would be forced to embark on reforms.

I thought that the costs of this inefficient model were already being felt particularly on the economic and social front and that they would continue to accumulate to the point where they would become intolerable to The System. However, I also thought that this Soviet-style Glasnost would only happen in a post-Mugabe era and this, at the moment, this looks like a very long way away.

In this part, I consider two other possible options by which The System might be broken.

 Option 3: When The System eats itself

The notion here is that the best way to unlock The System is through The System itself, or elements of it; that, in fact, the answer to the problem of The System lies in The System itself. This is similar to Option 2 but the difference here is that whereas Option 2 consists of self-initiated reform, Option 3 is really about a break-up arising from internal contradictions – where one might say, to use an old cliché, that the centre can no longer hold.

This is where internal cannibalism weakens and eventually causes The System to break down. The System eats itself as its members gang up against each other and start competing between themselves for the dwindling cake, thereby loosening the bonds that hold The System together.

The System is strong only for as long as its key members are benefiting from its facilities. But when a faction tries to monopolise the facilities of The System and, therefore, starts to exclude others, there is bound to be a bitter contest, which could ultimately cause The System to crash. The fights will escalate, as we are already witnessing over the succession issues and the ever-dwindling resources.

There are two ways to look at what is presently happening in Zanu PF. The first and more positive perspective would be that Zanu PF is going through a process of “creative destruction”, whereby the old, unwanted and undesirable elements are breaking off but that this helps to create a leaner and more efficient organisation. This view acknowledges that there is destruction that is taking place but says that this destruction is not bad. It says that this destruction is positive, useful and necessary. In this view, Zanu PF is, therefore, not dying, it is merely going through an evolutionary process of change and renewal.

The second and less positive perspective, would be that Zanu PF is self-destructing and that there are irreconcilable differences between the warring factions that will eventually tear it apart. According to this view, the only glue that holds Zanu PF today is Robert Mugabe, the long-time leader who commands respect and fear across the board in a manner that is unmatched by any other individual in Zanu PF.

The unifying character of Mugabe is evident in the way that all those who are fighting against each other seem to be united on one point – allegiance to or fear of Mugabe. The best way to get rid of an opponent in the internecine wars is to accuse them of trying to undermine and oust Mugabe from power. This tactic was used against former VP Mujuru and her allies and in recent days Information Minister has been complaining bitterly that his opponents, in this case, pro-Mnangagwa people, are using the same tactic against him.

But if the Mugabe factor is Zanu PF’s strength, it could also prove to be its Achilles Heel. This is because it means the unity in Zanu PF is dependent more upon an individual and if he dies, that could lead to chaos and the party would crumble.

Six months ago, it appeared as if there were two factions vying for power in a post-Mugabe era. But it has become clear now that this was a marriage of convenience between disparate factions united by a common interest to fight off a powerful adversary in Joice Mujuru. With that faction now effectively dispatched, the remaining factions are turning against each other.  Already we are witnessing a simmering fight between a faction backing the current favourite, Vice President Emmerson Mnangagwa on the one hand and a faction that includes Information Minister Professor Jonathan Moyo on the other hand.

These internal contradictions and friction could prove fatal to the party and the entire System. The only thing that could save it from a total break-up is The System. It is important to remember here that Zanu PF is not The System but rather, that it is only a part of The System, albeit an integral one.

The one thing, apart from the personality of Mugabe that holds The System together is the existence of a close network of interests fuelled by patronage and corruption. What binds the members of The System is their individual interests which they know are better served by retaining a sense of the collective. This is why even when individuals are harshly treated by or even fired from Zanu PF, most prefer to remain silent and to take their punishment quietly.

It’s as if a kind of Ormeta operates within The System – a Mafia-type law of silence, which means whatever happens, members of The System must remain silent, even if they have been injured. This is why in the past I have characterised Zanu PF as a Mafia organisation, with Mugabe as the Capo di tutti Capi, the Boss of all Bosses or simply, the Godfather. They maintain silence and retreat to their little corners because their businesses and most of their possessions were acquired through patronage and corruption facilitated by The System.

They live in fear of retribution. They know that The System has a file on each and every one of them – all their crimes and misdemeanours. This is the problem with accumulating assets through The System. The System never forgets and it has the potential to be vindictive and vicious. They can lose everything in a flash, including those things that they may have gained legitimately. Everything could go up in smoke – the farms, the business contracts, the privileges, etc.

But at some point, if those that are dismissed from Zanu PF realise that their access to what The System offers is blocked, they might begin to see the benefits of getting together and fighting to defend their assets. When that happens, that might hasten the weakening of The System. For this to work, however, it will have to be accompanied by the opening up of spaces in opposition for the disgruntled members and this is where the next option comes in, namely, The Grand Coalition.