Alex Magaisa
This week, a number of by-elections will be held in various constituencies across the country. The vacancies arose when Parliament accepted that the MDC-T had expelled a group of MPs who had defected and formed a new political party, the MDC Renewal Team. The MDC-T decided not to participate in the by-elections, citing an unfair electoral system and the government’s refusal to carry out satisfactory electoral reforms. Zanu PF is participating, alongside a host of other smaller opposition parties.
In the circumstances, it’s almost certain that Zanu PF will win most, if not all of the by-elections, given that their major rival is boycotting. In difficult constituencies, like Hurungwe West, they have unleashed their usual tactics, to intimidate and cow voters into submission. Led by Vice President Mnangagwa, Zanu PF have run a spirited campaign across the constituencies.
But why are Zanu PF are taking these by-elections so seriously when their major rival is not even contesting and the competition is generally weak? This question was posed to me by a journalist earlier today. I thought it was an interesting question worthy of deeper reflection and analysis, certainly beyond a soundbite that the media is often fond of.
In my opinion, this question has to be analysed from a strategic point of view: what is the strategic value of these by-elections to Zanu PF? This may help us to appreciate Zanu PF’s serious attitude towards the by-elections whose outcome might otherwise appear almost obvious to most observers.
Winning Culture
The first strategic reason is that Zanu PF knows a team needs a winning mentality and a culture of winning and that only comes from winning electoral contests. Ancient Chinese war strategist Sun Tzu, famously wrote that opportunities multiply as they are seized. In other words, success brings more success. Zanu PF know this too well. The boycott by their main rival presented an opportunity. Here is an opportunity to win and they have seized it, believing that it will bring more success.
As with any political actors, Zanu PF only cares about winning but for them, it matters little how that win is achieved. It can be by any means, fair or foul. And it can be with or without credible competition. If there is no competition, they will create it. This is why the narrative has always been about Tsvangirai and the MDC, even if they are not contesting. This also why the latest narrative is that the independents are being sponsored by former Vice President Joice Mujuru. These actors may not be contesting, but in the Zanu PF narrative, they are and they will be beaten.
Winning gives them a good feeling, more confidence and helps cement the winning mentality. Zanu PF are like the football manager who fields his strongest team in all competitions – big or small – because they know the importance of cultivating a winning mentality in their team. Every game matters. Every game must be won.
Benefits of “Winning”
This culture of ‘winning’ even by unfair means has strategic benefits to Zanu PF. People, especially, young people, are attracted to winners. You can see it other areas of competition, such as sport, where teams quickly develop a large following as they become winners and others suffer as they lose their winning streak. Political parties, too benefit from their reputation as winners, even if it’s considered unfair. Over the last year, I have spent a lot of hours with young people who support President Mugabe and Zanu PF, interviewing them and trying to understand what really draws them to a party which many hold accountable for the national ruin.
My desire to learn more about Zanu PF comes from my strong belief in another of Sun Tzu’s principles: “To know your enemy, you must become your enemy”. The moral of this is that you must know your opponent, a point I often shared with colleagues in the opposition, although sadly, as I discovered, the great Sun Tzu was neither well-known nor well-received in those circles.
Anyway, in my interviews with young Zanu PF supporters, I discovered that one of the most common reasons they gave was that Mugabe and Zanu PF were “winners”. Some of the young people were resigned to the notion that Zanu PF could not be beaten. We have to work with what is there, they said. When I suggested that Zanu PF uses unfair means to win, some said life was generally unfair and instead of always complaining, others should find ways to prevent the unfairness. You cannot moan every time but do nothing about it, some of them said.
It’s been useful tour, learning from these younger generation. I have learned that we now live in a society that is very different from 15-20 years ago, when I was at university. Cheating is no longer frowned upon like before. Those who achieve success by whatever means are celebrated. The end justifies the means. It’s a culture that celebrates kuvharana (cheating). Friends cheat friends and relatives cheat relatives – everything is fair game. For some young people, the fact that Zanu PF cheats to win is not something they see as a problem. One day, we shall touch on that subject on these pages.
Zanu PF know winning matters; that it demonstrates its power and that this in turn turns fence-sitters in their favour because people tend to go along with winners.
Morale Booster
The second strategic reason is that winning boosts morale and is important for unity and togetherness in team-building. When a team is doing well, there is less friction between its members. If the MDC-T had won the July 31 elections it is unlikely there would have been the split that happened last year. Winning gives a façade of unity and harmony in a team. Zanu PF knows victory in these by-elections will boost team spirit at a time when it is facing serious internal challenges.
Zanu PF knows there are people who may be doubting its capacity given the large-scale expulsions and suspensions that have taken place in recent months. Winning these by-elections, even if there is little competition, provides sufficient material to build the image that the party remains strong.
Preparation for 2018
An additional strategic reason is that these by-elections help Zanu PF to start preparations for the 2018 general elections. Already the party has embarked on massive voter registration campaign as part of these by-elections. Figures being given show that there are almost half a million voters registered for the by-elections. Since the MDC parties are not involved, it’s a safe bet that most of those newly registered voters are Zanu PF supporters.
In short, Zanu PF are taking these by-elections seriously because they are playing the long game, with their eyes focussed firmly on 2018. By the time the new national voters roll is compiled and produced, Zanu PF will be quite pleased with it. And in any event, as it participates in the by-elections, not only is it testing the electoral system, it is also adding to its knowledge bank in respect of the conduct of elections.
Visibility and profile of succession candidates
Furthermore, the by-elections are spread across the country, which means the campaigns have given an opportunity for succession candidates to gain broader visibility and national profiles. The by-elections have been a God-send especially to Vice President Mnangagwa, who is keen to gain a more visible and national profile, away from the big shadow of President Mugabe. In Mugabe’s absence, Mnangagwa has seized the opportunity and led the party’s campaign traversing the country and enjoying more hours on national radio, television and greater space in the newspapers.
However, his critics will say these campaigns have also exposed him, as he has made some highly controversial statements. For a long time Mnangagwa enjoyed a reputation as a quiet, cunning and no-nonsense schemer. There was a certain aura around him, strengthened by the fact that he spoke very little and let others speak about him. On the few occasions that he spoke, he would often give his famous retort, “I’m as soft as wool”, refuting the image that he was a ruthless hardliner. Now, however, given his position and his leadership aspirations, he cannot avoid opening his mouth and this has its own risks.
But still, the by-elections have been an opportunity to showcase himself around the country. And not to be left out, the other Vice President. Phelekezela Mphoko, has been throwing himself around, too. He probably fancies his chances, too, having tasted the sweetness of power. He curtly reminded Josiah Hungwe, a Mnangagwa ally, that he was not a second Vice President, but an equal to his fellow VP. Constitutionally, he was right, but of course, the political hierarchy is rather different.
Diversion from economic woes
A further reason for focusing on the by-elections is that they provide a welcome diversion from the country’s economic woes. The country is at a standstill economically and the government looks clueless in the face of the challenges. Anything to divert attention is a welcome distraction and the by-elections provide that diversion. Two years after the general elections, Zanu PF has failed to deliver. Where they promised 2 million jobs, the country is teeming with vendors. In these circumstances, an election victory will give a sense of achievement and a moment of glory.
Show of Support
It’s important for a party in power, especially one that is failing to deliver on its mandate, to demonstrate that it is still loved by the people. Politicians egos are very fragile. They like to be showered with love and adoration. These by-elections rallies provide all this – people dancing and fawning at the feet of politicians.
Politically, Zanu PF will use the by-elections victories as evidence to prove that they still command the support and trust of the majority. They were very pleased with the results of the Afrobarometer Survey which indicated that President Mugabe still enjoyed the support of the electorate and that the opposition were not very well trusted. Therefore, victory in the by-election will be used as yet more proof that all is well with President Mugabe and Zanu PF’s leadership.
Tactical manoeuvres: The long game
Further, as I have already said, Zanu PF is playing the long game and in that regard, these by-elections have become a strategic tool in the 2018 elections. Zanu PF will not mind going into that election without any serious competition. In fact, they will prefer that scenario, and how better than to keep the main rival away through exploiting its “No Reforms No Elections” campaign? And he is how they might do it:
After the June 10 by-elections, more will follow in the next three years leading to the 2018 election. All Zanu PF needs to do it to fire its unwanted MPs in selected groups from time to time, thereby, triggering by-elections. The staggered approach to holding by-elections means the country will always be in election mode until 2018. Strategically, this will place the boycotting opposition in a tight spot because Zanu PF will not carry out any electoral reforms and meanwhile they will be holding regular by-elections without any serious competition. Before you know it, the 2018 election season will be upon us. At that point, the MDC will be forced to yet again make the difficult decision whether to participate or to boycott the general elections. If they participate without reforms all the boycotts will seem like a massive waste. If they boycott, Zanu PF will not mind; in fact, they will be pleased with the open goal opportunity.
Thwarting Mujuru
Zanu PF are worried about Mujuru and they would want to suffocate her possible bid for power at an early stage. This is why she and Tsvangirai remain their major targets of attack in the state media and at rallies. Mujuru and Tsvangirai may not be contesting in these by-elections, but for Zanu P, they must still be defeated. This is why they are keen to link Mujuru to the independent candidates. The narrative will be that defeat of the independent candidates will be defeat of Mujuru. That is how the propaganda will be shaped, so that even before Mujuru launches her party, if she has those intentions, they will say it failed before she had even started. The MDC-T may not be participating, but for Zanu PF, they and Mujuru are part of the whole game. They are there and their victory will be a victory against them too.
Fear of Failure
Finally, politicians are never cock-sure, even when things look obvious to by-standers. There is always the fear of failure. Something might go wrong. You have to be cautious. If necessary you have to throw the kitchen sink. You approach every election like all others. You cannot be complacent. This fear of failure drives you to invest more and to do more. There is Hurungwe West, a very difficult constituency in which they have had to deploy all their usual dirty tactics against Temba Mliswa. There are Bulawayo urban constituencies, for so long strongholds of the MDC, but now left open by the MDC’s boycott. Nothing is certain in politics. So they have to take the by-elections seriously, lest they lose and face embarrassment. It would be very embarrassing indeed, to lose any of those seats when your major rival is boycotting the elections. Ironically, this boycott actually adds pressure on Zanu PF to win all their elections.
waMagaisa
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