ZIMBABWE: WHY THE “SMART SANCTIONS” WERE’NT SO SMART

Alex T. Magaisa

News is that the European Union will in the next four weeks be removing smart sanctions imposed almost ten years ago against targeted individual and juristic persons in Zimbabwe. The news has been welcomed by all parties across the political divide. This is an important event in the trajectory of Zimbabwean politics.

Personally, I was never persuaded by the effectiveness of those sanctions. I first wrote on this issue seven years ago in 2005 in an article published on newzimbabwe.com entitled “Zimbabwe: Sanctions, the economy and democratic process” at http://www.newzimbabwe.com/pages/magaisa6.13113.html and made the argument that the targeted sanctions were in fact missing the targets. At the time, the article started a very interesting debate with a few Zimbabwean colleagues (see links to the 2005 debate below).

Four years later, in another article also published on newzimbabwe.com entitled “Sanctions could strangle the Zimbabwe “baby” at birth” at http://www.newzimbabwe.com/pages/magaisa88.18526.html written a few days after the commencement of inter-party talks which eventually led up to the GPA, I argued that sanctions could affect the functioning of the GPA. As it happened, ZANU PF has throughout the life of the GNU continually refused to implement parts of the GPA on the basis that sanctions have not been removed. It has been the perfect excuse for non-implementation of the GPA. The Zimbabwean “baby” in the form of the GNU has not been strangled alright but it has had a torrid life.

In 2010, in a further article published in The Standard newspaper entitled “Sanctions: Beware of ZANU PF’s Crocodile Tears” at http://www.thestandard.co.zw/opinion/23371-sanctions-beware-of-zanu-pfs-crocodile-tears.html I cautioned against the continued insistence on sanctions which far from being a threat and punishment to the targeted were actually strengthening their hand in negotiations for the implementation of the GPA.

It is interesting that the EU has finally come to the conclusion that the sanctions had apparently “failed to hit their mark” (see Daily Telegraph report entitled:  Zimbabwe politicians welcome suspended sanctions plans at http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/africaandindianocean/zimbabwe/9393824/Zimbabwe-politicians-welcome-suspended-sanctions-plans.html”. Speaking from Harare renowned economist John Robertson is quoted as having said the sanctions had in fact political mileage to given ZANU PF.

Like I said, I was never sufficiently persuaded by the effectiveness of the smart sanctions and instead thought they actually had a boomerang effect. My position on this aspect did not always persuade some of my colleagues (and probably still does not) but it is one over which I was able to assert my own independence of thought. It is interesting that the EU seems to have come round to similar conclusions that some of us have put forward over the years. Here I summarise some of the salient points forming the core of my views on the smart sanctions regime:

 

1. Far from being a point of weakness, sanctions became a source of strength amongst the targeted. Notice how ZANU PF responded to calls for the implementation of the GPA with its own call for the removal of sanctions. The reluctance to remove the sanctions because an excuse for refusing to implement the GPA.

 

2. Smart sanctions may have been imposed in the mistaken belief their effect would tickle the conscience of the targeted and that the targeted cared for the rest of the citizens.  

 

3. Notwithstanding the fact that they were not the primary cause of Zimbabwe’s economic and political problems, sanctions became the convenient scapegoat for all challenges and sustained the foundation for ZANU PF’s anti-imperialist rhetoric.

 

4. Although they were “targeted” their mere existence had a ripple effect on the country as a whole. It is hard to separate the country and its leadership. The country’s image in the court of international public opinion suffered. The UN Human Rights Commissioner, Ms Navi Pillay confirmed this on her recent visit when she pointed out that the stigma of sanctions was “inflicting damage on the Zimbabwean economy” (see Daily Telegraph link above).

 

5. Smart sanctions gave an excuse and opportunities for the state to intensify its grip on the citizens as the state played innocent victim and intensified measures under the auspices of protecting the country’s sovereignty. Members of the public exposed to multiple sources of information and therefore able to exercise informed judgement might have dismissed the rhetoric on sanctions but that would be a gross underestimation of the effect of repeated messages to the general population without access to more sources of information. Repressive laws like POSA were actually intensified and extended purportedly to maintain “public order and security” on the apparent claim that Zimbabwe was under siege from sanctions-imposing Western forces.

 

6. Smart sanctions lent credibility to ZANU PF’s claims of a West’s “Regime-Change” agenda, thereby undermining the legitimacy of Zimbabwe’s democratic forces who were blamed for their imposition. It took years for counties in the SADC region to read beyond this veil and accept the MDC and others as genuine and credible entities.

 

7. While, popular opinion tends to place weight on the “nuisance” or “embarrassment” value of smart sanctions, i.e. that it stops the targeted ones from travelling to places where they are banned but the reality is that there was not much else beyond this. Sanctions never stopped the targeted persons from travelling and spending taxpayers’ funds in other similarly expensive places. They simply “looked east”, where they have been warmly welcomed.

 

8. Further, sanctions did not stop the targeted from the core business of wealth accumulation. None of the targeted individuals is any worse off, after 10 years of sanctions, than they were before the sanctions were imposed. Instead, they have got wealthier, occupying an island of abundance in a sea of desperation. Some can even afford to buy banks, a decade after targeted sanctions.

 

9. The efficacy of the sanctions was never clear, apart from the stated “nuisance” effect. There is no clear evidence that tells how much, if any of the assets belonging to the targeted persons have actually been frozen. It is probable that most of this wealth is held in low-tax offshore jurisdictions that are havens for the wealthy, and there, the hand of the sanctions regime has very limited reach.

 

10. Notwithstanding their label, the EU has recognised that the so-called “smart sanctions” weren’t very smart. It is important not to forget that the EU is also acting in its own interests. Events have moved so fast since the imposition of sanctions ten years ago. China has moved in and taken advantage of lost spaces in Zimbabwe and Africa generally. The global economic climate is in dire straits. Europe’s economy is sick. Europe realises it cannot afford to continue losing space in Africa and with its resources, Zimbabwe is not an insignificant part of the economic equation.

 

The removal of “smart sanctions” takes away a key card that ZANU PF has consistently played. It opens up room for dialogue and negotiation but most importantly, it will be very difficult to refuse implementation of the GPA on the basis of sanctions only. In future, it will increasingly become difficult to place all blame for the country’s ills on the basis of sanctions. Now it’s left to the US to take a cue from its’ EU counterparts.

 

wamagaisa (2012)

 

wamagaisa@yahoo.co.uk

 

Further reading – Links to the 2005 debate on smart sanctions:

 

Magaisa A: “Zimbabwe: Sanctions, the economy and democratic process” http://www.newzimbabwe.com/pages/magaisa6.13113.html

 

Hondora T: Economic sanctions undermine Zimbabwe’s economy http://www.newzimbabwe.com/pages/sanctions32.13170.html

 

Nyathi N: It’s Zanu PF not sanctions stupid! 

http://www.newzimbabwe.com/pages/sanctions33.13182.html

 

Magaisa A: On Sanctions, Mugabe and the Economy http://www.newzimbabwe.com/pages/sanctions34.13185.html

 

Hondora T: Sanctions – Are they political or economic? http://www.newzimbabwe.com/pages/sanctions36.13187.html

 

Moyo, K: US Sanctions: Futile Misguided Deceitful http://www.newzimbabwe.com/pages/sanctions35.13186.html

 

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