Zimbabwe’s Justice Minister, Patrick Chinamasa last week declared in an interview with the BBC’s Andrew Harding that MDC-T leader and current Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai is “asking for trouble” if he wins the Presidential election scheduled for next year.

When asked whether ZANU PF was prepared to accept a Tsvangirai victory Chinamasa responded: “He [Tsvangirai] cannot win”. And later, he is quoted as saying that “I know he [Tsvangirai] is the front of (sic) the countries that impose sanctions. And if those countries impose for him to win, that result will not be acceptable. We will not accept it. We will just not accept it. Isn’t that clear?”

This comes at a time when President Mugabe is declaring that the country is ready to hold free and fair elections and that those who do not want to contest will not be forced to do so. The statements attributed to Chinamasa are certainly out of sync with this message but confirm what has long been feared about elections in Zimbabwe: that in ZANU PF’s world-view, the only election that is acceptable is an election that delivers a positive result for itself. Anything else would be unacceptable.

Chinamasa is the Minister responsible for Justice, Legal and Parliamentary affairs in Zimbabwe and that portfolio gives him the role of administering the Electoral Act, among other laws that deal with elections. As Justice Minister he will have a role in the next electoral processes, including the accreditation of election observers. Yet already, long before the election dates have been declared, Chinamasa is not only defining the goalposts, but declaring that one of the prospective contestants cannot score or let alone win the contest.

What Chinamasa has said is, of course nothing new. In the past, military commanders have issued statements to the same effect, indicating clear hostility to the man and his leadership aspirations. There is a long list of such threats of subverting the people’s will and Chinamasa’s is just the latest in the catalogue. On this occasion, Chinamasa also invoked the threat of ZANU PF’s military might:

“And this is where the military comes in …” he said suggesting that the military step in to prevent a Morgan Tsvangirai victory and subvert the will of the people and therefore, the Constitution.

So in Chinamasa’s opinion, the people of Zimbabwe are so immature that they are unable to make their own political decisions and instead they have to rely on the wisdom of ZANU PF and its allies in the military. Should they vote for Tsvangirai, that decision will be deemed incorrect and will be subverted by ZANU PF, the military and war veterans.

This then begs the question regarding the hullaballoo over the elections; of why ZANU PF is so intent on having an election whose result is already pre-determined. Why are they so keen on going ahead with an election when they are not prepared to accept the results of that contest, should the result not be in their favour? Why not simply come out in the open and declare that Tsvangirai and the MDC-T are prohibited from contesting the election? Why go through the charade of an election when an unfavourable result will not be accepted?

The fact is these are the types of reckless stunts that do Zimbabwe no favours at all. Even those who may have been prepared to take ZANU PF more seriously in recent years surely have to despair when a senior official utters such remarks which essentially rubbish the entire election process which they would otherwise wish to present as credible and legitimate to the rest of the world.

Such statements also debunk the myth that ZANU PF banks on its policies to win elections; the one that has gained currency in recent years that in indigenisation and land reform ZANU PF has cogent policies as points around which to rally support to beat rivals in an election. Chinamasa’s statements and threats suggest that the party does not have confidence in a policy-based approach and instead can and will only rely on the power that it draws from the security structures.

In this regard, Chinamasa’s statements only serve to confirm what has long been known: that ZANU PF’s main source of power lies in the national security structure.  The other traditional structures of power, namely finance, production and knowledge play their part but none more so than the security structure.

However, coming as they have done well in advance of the elections, by the law of unintended consequences, Chinamasa’s statements are in a strange sort of way quite welcome. They are welcome because they demonstrate the reality of attitudes and positions on the Zimbabwean political landscape: that nothing has changed to make the next election free and fair. People who have doubted the sincerity of the tolerance and peaceful tune that President Mugabe has been singing in recent months will feel vindicated by Chinamasa’s declarations.

President Mugabe’s backers might say Chinamasa was not representing the President or his party position or indeed the military. Well, if that is the case, the one way to prove it would be correct the representations that have been given so publicly on the world stage by Chinamasa or to publicly censure him for his remarks. After all, they represent a threat to disregard and disrespect the Constitution which is the supreme law of the land. As Justice Minister, a lawyer and member of the Law Society of Zimbabwe, Chinamasa knows that only too well and both his oaths as a minister and as a lawyer oblige him to respect and uphold the laws of the land.

Chinamasa says Tsvangirai and the MDC-T seek to reverse the land reform programme, which is a gross misrepresentation. As one of ZANU PF’s negotiators in the constitutional reform process, he knows that the agreed clauses on agricultural land do not such thing. This is why even in ZANU PF’s own set of amendments, the Copac draft’s clauses on agricultural land have not been seriously amended, reflecting the accommodation that has been reached between the parties. The reason for continuously raising the spectre of the MDC-T reversing the land reform programme is simply to perpetuate a tired line that the MDC-T is anti-land reform.

Coincidentally, ZANU PF removed all provisions in Chapter 16 of the Copac draft Constitution relating to the establishment of the Land Commission whose main functions include carrying out a land audit and ensuring adherence to the “one person-one farm” principle. The effect of this would be to ensure transparency and prevent multiple farm ownership. Only those who are multiple farm owners can be afraid of the existence of a body like the Land Commission.  Far from reversing the land reform process, the agreed aim is to regularise the process, to ensure security of tenure and to set out a basis for productive agriculture.

More importantly, however, the statements are welcome in that they remind SADC as the facilitator and guarantor of the GPA, the AU as the other guarantor, the United Nations and the rest of the world regarding the challenge that continues to encumber Zimbabwe. Far from signalling any confidence in the prospect of a free and fair election, Chinamasa’s statements signal a repeat of the 2008 charade. For a man of his stature, the statements were remarkable for their reckless and plain disregard for the law and the will of the people.

As the old saying goes, however long it stays in the river, a log will never transform into a crocodile.

Note: Chinamasa lost to the MDC-T’s John Nyamande in the 2008 parliamentary elections. He was later appointed to Parliament by President Mugabe as a Senator.

ATM

wamagaisa@yahoo.co.uk

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