Alex T. Magaisa
The stakes in the race to succeed President Mugabe are getting higher by the day. The contest pitting the two factions is getting more intense, bitter and fractious.
One is a faction built around Emmerson Mnangagwa, one of the country’s two Vice Presidents. This, we might conveniently refer to as the Ngwena Faction, in reference to Mnangagwa’s sobriquet. This time last year, when Zanu PF held its Congress, the Ngwena Faction was enjoying a moment in the sun, after their main rival at the time, the Mujuru Faction was swept aside in a whirlwind led, ironically, by Grace Mugabe, the President Mugabe’s wife, who now threatens the realisation of his long-held ambition.
The other is a faction building its stock around, Grace Mugabe. It is referred to by the label G40, a moniker introduced into Zimbabwean political vocabulary a few years ago, by Professor Jonathan Moyo, a strong defender of Grace Mugabe and believed to be the intellectual godfather of that group, although he denies that it is a faction. In that camp is Saviour Kasukuwere, the political commissar of Zanu PF, who goes by the nickname, Tyson – a reference owing as much to his heavy physical stature and combative approach. Also in that group is Patrick Zhuwao, the President’s nephew, appointed to government a few months ago. All three have recently enrolled into law school, a move probably designed to correct a weakness exploited by their rivals, who have leveraged on their legal qualifications for superiority in debates.
For months the battle has been brewing, with Moyo issuing regular salvos on social media targeted at the Ngwena Faction, referring to them as “successionists”, accusing them of trying to get to the top using undemocratic means and undermining President Mugabe. It has been a sustained assault and although some members of the Ngwena Faction have tried to respond, it has often been intermittent and without cogency and effect. The G40 probably calculated that Mnangagwa would struggle to win an election and Grace Mugabe’s rallies are therefore to be seen as part of preparations to build her up for election in due course. The rallies are clearly part of the Brand Grace Mugabe campaign, with an eye to a future election. G40 is leveraging on her proximity to power and resources and the fact that she can’t be accused of undermining Mugabe, something that other Zanu PF candidates are unable to do without attracting theories of plotting to topple the leader. She is even handing over state property to rural masses – tractors and agricultural implements which form part of a loan package from Brazil.
In recent days, however, the Ngwena Faction has suffered heavy casualties, raising the question as to whether and if so, how Mnangagwa will respond.
Heavy Casualties
The most important assault on the Ngwena Faction is the suspension, by vote of no confidence of two of its members, Monica Mutsvangwa and Esphinah Nhari, both senior officers of the Women’s League. This is the powerful women’s wing of Zanu PF led by Grace Mugabe. Mutsvangwa’s charge centres on indiscipline and insubordination to Grace Mugabe while Nhari’s crime is that she chanted the slogan “Pasi neG40!” at a recent rally in Masvingo, where Grace Mugabe was addressing. Pasi ne40 means down with the G40 Faction.
Indeed, that this slogan is considered a crime punishable by suspension or expulsion suggests there is a powerful group within the Women’s League that favours or is part of the G40, and shows where power is gravitating towards. Last year, the slogan in vogue was Pasi neGamatox! (Down with Gamatox), a reference to the Mujuru Faction which was then under siege. Not a single soul was prosecuted or suspended for chanting that slogan. That was a show of where power was located and it was not in the Gamatox Faction. Events later would confirm this reality. Here, with persecution for castigating the G40, we may be seeing a replay for a similar trend.
Both Mutsvangwa and Nhari are counted in the Ngwena Faction. Mutsvangwa’s husband, Chris, has been a vocal critic of the G40 Faction and a defender of the Ngwena Faction. A few days ago, he was at the receiving end of a verbal lashing from Kasukuwere, who told a Harare Province meeting that he had had enough with the “Mutsvangwa nonsense”. “He [Mutsvangwa] can go to hell!”, he is quoted as having said by Newsday, a private daily. Mutsvangwa responded by saying Kasukuwere was a failure as a political commissar, alleging the party had suffered a “yawning ideological gap” since his appointment to the key party post. This very public altercation between two senior officials reflects the bitter internecine war in the party.
Now, however, after the suspension of his wife, the signs seem ominous for Mutsvangwa. Apart from his Ministerial position, he is head of the powerful association of veterans of the liberation struggle, a militant and powerful constituency of Zanu PF. His predecessor, Jabulani Sibanda was sacked around this time last year, accused of plotting to remove President Mugabe from power, as part of the Mujuru Faction. Ironically, Mutsvangwa was at forefront of that sustained and brutal assault against Mujuru and Sibanda. Now, though, he may be in the firing line, proof that what goes around comes around. Apart from the altercation with Kasukuwere, he has also traded insults with George Charamba, who is President Mugabe’s spokesperson.
Now that a suspension has been recommended, Monica Mutsvangwa and Nhari might think they will have their day in court, when their matter comes before the Zanu PF disciplinary committee. But they will discover the perils of a justice system that is manned by partisan individuals. The members of the disciplinary committee include Phelekezela Mphoko, one of the co-Vice Presidents, Kasukuwere and Grace Mugabe – all said to be members of the G40. The other is the chairman of the Youth Wing, Pupurai Togarepi, who if he is not in G40 already, is likely to go with the dominant wind. Their fate is sealed, unless something fundamental happens. For Monica Mutsvangwa, her ministerial position and a seat on the gravy train will now be at risk.
Ngwena’s Options
On a balance of probabilities, it seems the Ngwena Faction is imperilled. The suspensions of key Mnangagwa allies for defending his faction are a direct assault on him and he can only ignore them at his peril. He faces a difficult choice. He must either come to their defence or pretend nothing has happened and await his own fate. Both options have serious consequences which he must weigh carefully. The former route will expose him as godfather of a faction, something he has been keen to avoid, portraying himself instead, as a national leader who is loyal to Mugabe. Pretending that nothing has happened will also have devastating consequences.
First, it will seem like cowardice, the inaction of a man, who, like Mujuru before him, stood by haplessly, as lieutenants were taken down methodically, until finally, she was left exposed. Her removal was much easier than had previously been imagined. In this regard, it is important to recall that Mnangagwa has form. Back in 2004, when the scandal of the Tsholotsho Declaration broke out, his allies were fired. He was demoted to a backwater ministry of rural affairs, but at least, he remained in Government. He did nothing to protect his allies. Moyo was one of the major casualties, and he might never have forgiven Mnangagwa for the betrayal.
Second, it will embolden the G40, encouraged by the new-found belief that Mnangagwa does not have the means or will to fight back, just like Mujuru before him. Shona folklore has the story of Zizi, the owl, once feared by all birds of the forest because they believed she had horns. She thrived on this false belief of her fearsome powers. However, the Shona legend goes, one day Nhengure, the little black bird challenged Zizi to a fight, whereupon it became evident that the so-called horns were merely large ears and feathers. From then on, says the legend, Zizi beat a hasty retreat and fled, only to reappear in the dark of the night, a time when most birds were asleep. That is why the owl is often seen at night, so says the legend. Apparently, Zizi is still running away from the little black bird, who exposed her false powers. If Mnangagwa does not protect his allies, it might embolden his rivals into believing that he is the owl, not the crocodile.
Third, it will expose him to desertion from members of his faction, in pursuit of protection. Those who have so far stood by him expect bold leadership and protection. But when their leader does nothing as their colleagues are persecuted and punished, they will start to think about their own fate. Politicians are an inherently self-interested tribe. Anything that threatens their self-interest, they will flee for refuge. Principles and loyalty often come a distant second and third in their order of priorities. In time, therefore, sensing heightened risk, they will lean towards the zone of safety. We saw this last year, when some members of the Mujuru Faction jumped ship upon realising that she was not going to fight back or protect them. Others remained silent, failing to stand by her or defend her when she needed it most. Rather than leave in expression of solidarity with her cause, they chose to stay, hoping desperately they could escape punishment. Still, though, they were fired. But they had tried to do what most politicians do – protecting self-interest. Even now, the likes of Nicholas Goche and Webster Shamhu, fired for allegedly supporting Mujuru, have been embarrassing themselves with very public attempts to get back into good books with the powerful faction.
There would have been many in Mujuru’s camp who were opportunists who thought she was best-placed to succeed Mugabe. Likewise, there are probably many in the Ngwena Faction who are there for self-interest, believing that Mnangagwa was best best-placed to succeed Mugabe after last year’s Congress. But these characters, who go where the wind chooses, will already be watching what their boss does, and planning to jump ship as soon as they notice any prevarication or weakness on his part.
What to do?
But as I have stated, coming to the defence of his allies will also expose him to the charge that he is leading a faction that is intent upon dislodging President Mugabe. Word in all Zimbabwean political parties is that if you want to discover the owner of a ‘goblin’, you must squeeze it hard until it screams and until its owner takes pity and comes to its defence. The theory is that upon witnessing the pain and suffering of the ‘goblin’, the owner will come out in its defence. The ‘goblins’ in this case are people like Monica Mutsvangwa and Nhari. By persecuting and suspending them, the aim is to draw out their godfather, because ultimately, he is their principal target. He is the one they want to provoke into reacting. Mnangagwa may feel it’s not in his interests to react. The crocodile may refuse to take the bait. But that will have to be weighed against the perils outlined above.
It is a hard choice, but the crocodile must either sink or swim.
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